Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 47.3%-9.7ptLíder entre 25 opções
Previsores
116
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+40.7 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
19/09/26, 23:42 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsRegras
[image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.
- If Trump announces multiple individuals to co-lead the role, the market will resolve proportionally among those named.
- If no official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- The primary sources of truth will be official White House statements, the named outcome's verified Truth Social posts, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times).
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
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- Volume total
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
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POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
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KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
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- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar??
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 47% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? é resolvido?
- Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: [image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.