Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 32.2%Líder entre 8 opções
Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado9/04/26, 20:18 UTC31/12/30, 21:24 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
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PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 32% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) é resolvido?
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.