Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
None of the above happens by 2500 47.9%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado2/01/24, 21:44 UTC31/12/00, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsKnights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy?
Manifold Markets⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (15 DONE)
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketVatican III in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
- Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
- The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
- If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".
Mercados abertos
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 33,4 mil
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle+1.9pt6%
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa+2.0pt5%
- Pietro Parolin4%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 122,3 mil
KALSHIWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Peru99%
- Argentina95%
- Uruguay92%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 179,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- € 708,4
- Volume 24h
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Volume total
- € 9
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Brigham Young University allow students to wear beards by 2030
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume total
- € 1,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- —
- Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Knights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy?
- Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first??
- A Manifold Markets cota None of the above happens by 2500 em 48% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? é resolvido?
- Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2500.
- Como Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.