Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualGPT (OpenAI) 78.3%+10.1ptLíder entre 5 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+11.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado21/11/25, 2:0231/12/26, 23:59
Tendências
Regras
Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.
- Doesn’t count if someone releases a model with a number that isn’t a version number. “Grok 69” would not count. “GPT-6-preview” would count.
- The model must be publicly accessible.
- If there’s a tie, resolves evenly split among tied companies.
- Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Version number comparison: If there is ambiguity in comparing version numbers (e.g., 5.9 vs 5.11), the creator will ask each model how to resolve the market and resolve to the average of their opinions.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 457,4 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 8,7 mi
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 149,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota GPT (OpenAI) em 78% em 3 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? é resolvido?
- Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.