Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAnthropic 38.5%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado26/08/26, 19:19 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the organization or laboratory (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or others) that developed the model holding the highest general capability score on the official Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) Leaderboard (interactive version at epoch.ai/eci) as of December 31, 2027.
- The resolution will be based on the general ECI, rather than domain-specific sub-indices (such as the Math ECI or SWE ECI).
- Highest score is determined by the model with the highest point estimate on the index.
- If there is an exact tie between models from different organizations, resolution will be split equally among the tying options.
- If Epoch AI has ceased updating or maintaining the ECI, or if the site is permanently down at the end of 2027, the market will resolve based on the last available snapshot of the index on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine from 2027.
