Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOpenAI 32.6%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-0.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado26/08/26, 19:19 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the organization or laboratory (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or others) that developed the model holding the highest general capability score on the official Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) Leaderboard (interactive version at epoch.ai/eci) as of December 31, 2027.
- The resolution will be based on the general ECI, rather than domain-specific sub-indices (such as the Math ECI or SWE ECI).
- Highest score is determined by the model with the highest point estimate on the index.
- If there is an exact tie between models from different organizations, resolution will be split equally among the tying options.
- If Epoch AI has ceased updating or maintaining the ECI, or if the site is permanently down at the end of 2027, the market will resolve based on the last available snapshot of the index on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine from 2027.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume total
- € 125,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 55 mil
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
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- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota OpenAI em 33% em 11 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? é resolvido?
- Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria