Previsão da comunidade atual
Anthropic 40.3%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado29/08/24, 15:58 UTC31/12/30, 18:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.
- This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
- If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)
Mercados abertos
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 79,5 mil
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M-0.5pt59%
- $1B-4.0pt46%
- $2B43%
+7 mais resultados
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+7.5pt32.2%
- $14,000-$15,999+4.1pt18.1%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.7pt16.9%
+3 mais resultados
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 389,7
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume total
- € 80 mil
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 97,1
- Volume 24h
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"??
- A Manifold Markets cota Anthropic em 40% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? é resolvido?
- Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.