Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOpenBrain Revenue 45bi 2026 Annual 97%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
86
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado4/04/25, 18:41 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
Manifold MarketsWill "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsEmilia Moore AI predictions 2026
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
From the famous AI 2027 report:
- https://ai-2027.com/
- The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
- the named outcome refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
- Feel free to suggest questions.
- I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)