Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?
IAOne-OffTecnologia1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualGemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse 90.9%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado30/09/26, 02:21 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the score of Google's Gemini 4 Pro on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index compared to the leading model's score immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- The market will resolve using the official scores published on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard).
- $S_{Gemini}$: The highest score achieved by any configuration/effort level of Gemini 4 Pro (e.g., standard, max effort, etc.) when its official score is first fully indexed and listed on the leaderboard.
- $S_{Lead}$: The highest score on the index among all other models immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- Difference ($D$): Calculated as $D = S_{Lead} - S_{Gemini}$ (representing how many points worse Gemini 4 Pro scored compared to the previous leader).