When will the AP call control of the US House after the 2026 midterms?
1.7 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20266d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualElection night: Nov 3, before midnight ET 62.8%+1.7ptLíder entre 5 opções
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3
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
+1.7 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado10/10/26, 23:08 UTC3/11/26, 22:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves to the date (US Eastern Time) on which the Associated Press calls which party has won a majority (218+ seats) of the US House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. **Resolution source:** the AP's race call for House control, as published on apnews.com (or the AP's live results page / AP Politics account).
- If the AP does not publish an explicit majority call, the time at which AP's own seat tally first shows 218 House seats called for one party counts as the call. **Answers (all times Eastern):** - Election night: Nov 3, before midnight - the named outcome - the named outcome - the named outcome - the named outcome Calls made after midnight ET on election night count as the named outcome.
- If the AP has made no call by December 31, 2026, resolves to "the named outcome".
- For reference: the AP called the House on November 16 in 2022 and November 13 in 2024, both years with narrow majorities.
- In 2018 (a Democratic wave), it was called on election night.
- The market closes before the first polls close on November 3.
