Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Later than 2027 48.2%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
39
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado5/01/24, 01:23 UTC1/01/28, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
0.3%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.
- This market resolves when OpenAI publicly releases a model which is in some way specialized for robotics.
- If no such model has been released by the end of 2027, it will resolve "the named outcome".
- To count, a model must be released to at least a thousand people outside of OpenAI (the general public, enterprise customers, etc).
- Internal development does not count.
- Alpha tests do not count.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- € 135,2 mil
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volume total
- € 325 mil
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will OpenAI release a robotics model??
- A Manifold Markets cota Later than 2027 em 48% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will OpenAI release a robotics model? é resolvido?
- When will OpenAI release a robotics model? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como When will OpenAI release a robotics model? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.