Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Later than 2027 67.7%Líder entre 5 opções
Later than 2027 67.7%Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado5/01/24, 01:23 UTC1/01/28, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.
- This market resolves when OpenAI publicly releases a model which is in some way specialized for robotics.
- If no such model has been released by the end of 2027, it will resolve "the named outcome".
- To count, a model must be released to at least a thousand people outside of OpenAI (the general public, enterprise customers, etc).
- Internal development does not count.
- Alpha tests do not count.
