Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 89%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado2/01/26, 07:50 UTC16/01/27, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
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- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 é resolvido?
- Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 16 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026