There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years
IA4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Other 32.9%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
20
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado16/09/24, 14:09 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketRegras
Paying its own server costs.
- Running its own code.
- This market cannot resolve no for specific years (this is how the manifold functionality works) either it resolves yes to one year or no to all at the close date (I guess that would be other)
Mercados abertos
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- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
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- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
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- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
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- Volume total
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years?
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 33% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years é resolvido?
- There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Paying its own server costs.