Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (99%)
Resolvido: 13 de ago. de 2026, 07:15
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
Yes
A 7 dias
—
A 24 horas
—
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 99%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 dias
Desatualizado16/07/26, 5:5913/08/26, 7:15
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Regras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts at least one kinetic strike (including airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, or naval/artillery bombardment) within the internationally recognized territorial borders of Iran (including its mainland and sovereign islands) at any point from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Details:
- Target Location: Strikes must hit targets physically located within Iran's sovereign territory.
- Cyberattacks, kinetic strikes against Iranian-aligned proxy forces outside of Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen), or maritime blockades/ship disabling in international waters do not count unless accompanied by kinetic strikes on Iranian territory.
