Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado9/09/24, 08:01 UTC30/03/29, 15:59 UTC
Tendências
0.4%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
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https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- € 9,1 mi
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix?
- A Manifold Markets cota No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 em 66% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix é resolvido?
- Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix deverá ser resolvido em 30 de março de 2029.
- Como Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833