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No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Líder entre 7 opções
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Previsores
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado9/09/24, 08:01 UTC30/03/29, 15:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.