Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
One-OffIACiênciaTecnologia11a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 60.9%
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
22/12/24, 19:04 UTC30/06/38, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsWill the President of the United States of America admit to using AI to help make an important decision before 2028 ends
Manifold MarketsDo you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2037
- Paper must either be available, or totally confirmed to be valid (e.g. Terence Tao clearly states it's legit, or similar) and on the way to publication.
- It doesn't have to be a paper, some future thing which has a similar effect is okay (effect = changing behavior, beliefs, statements about, or elite evaluations of the truthfullness of related statements; if in the future such things are done by other methods, we do our best to understand that.
- Lack of human intelligibility isn't a blocker as long as we have reason to believe it's true.
- Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A paper that refutes P=NP would count as a valid resolution
- Any result that significantly changes our view of the P=NP problem would qualify
