SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
IAOne-Off1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 69.1%
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Desatualizado9/10/25, 23:04 UTC10/10/26, 23:04 UTC
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This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 69% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). é resolvido?
- SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). deverá ser resolvido em 10 de outubro de 2026.
- Como SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).