Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 68.4%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado6/09/26, 19:26 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsAI: Major scientific discovery by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?
Manifold MarketsWill a captive coelecanth live in aquarium for more than 3 years by 2032
Manifold MarketsRegras
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.
