Este mercado foi resolvido: 5-7.5 (88.6%)
Resolvido: 24 de jul. de 2026, 23:32
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atual5-7.5 88.6%+11.4ptLíder entre 10 opções
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 26 dias
Desatualizado9/04/26, 16:4924/07/26, 23:32
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
>501.1%
40-501.1%
30-401.1%
25-301.1%
20-251.1%
15-201.3%
10-151.9%
7.5-101.5%
5-7.588.6%
<51%
88.6%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
Regras
This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
- 'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
- Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
- Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- [link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.
Mercados abertos
Chainlink
KALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)+11.0pt42%
- Ripple (XRP)+10.0pt36%
- Ethereum (ETH)-1.0pt34%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 546 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 3,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+9 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in August?
- ↑ 10+46.5pt100%
- ↓ 8100%
- ↑ 12+24.0pt51%
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MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich cryptocurrencies will have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin94.9%
- Tether USDt93.2%
- Ethereum87.7%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mil
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich cryptocurrencies will have obviously failed by the end of 2026? (Add your own)
- LINK - Chainlink50%
- XLM - Stellar50%
- Polkadot47.6%
+11 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 3,2 mil
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
- Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st100%
- Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom100%
- Evan permabanned from Manifold100%
+59 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 16,8 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?
- A Manifold Markets cota 5-7.5 em 89% em 25 de julho de 2026.
- Quando Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon é resolvido?
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon deverá ser resolvido em 24 de julho de 2026.
- Como Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.