Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
ChainlinkOne-OffSpaceIATecnologiaPolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 19 de jul. de 2026, 16:40 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Previsão da comunidade atualIn-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
32
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado anteontem
Desatualizado28/10/24, 14:201/01/29, 4:59
Tendências
100%
0%
0%
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 202610%
Tendência de volume
$75016 de jul.4d de dados19 de jul.
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Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.