Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2026-12-01 88.9%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
31/08/26, 14:57 UTC1/12/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 3.9, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 125,4 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,9 mi
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 156,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 26,1 mil
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 mais resultados
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2026-12-01 em 89% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date é resolvido?
- Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date deverá ser resolvido em 1 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.