Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76.4%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado30/05/26, 19:51 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?
- Internal-only models count.
- If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.
- c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation
- I may trade on this market.
- [link preview]