Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual≥$30B 100%Líder entre 11 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-22.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 minutos
22/04/26, 3:421/10/26, 3:59
Tendências
100%
100%
100%
Regras
Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).
- Resolution timing.
- Revenue disclosure cadence changes at IPO: pre-IPO, ARR figures leak ad-hoc through press; post-IPO, revenue arrives on a quarterly filing schedule with a ~40–45 day lag from quarter-end.
- If OpenAI is still private at September 30, 2026: market resolves at close, based on figures published on or before September 30, 2026.
- If OpenAI is public at September 30, 2026: market waits up to 45 days after September 30, 2026 for the quarter-ending 10-Q or earnings release, then resolves.
- Post-IPO quarterly revenue is annualized as quarterly × 4 and attributed to quarter-end.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 255,6 mil
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 143,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 130,5 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7,8 mi
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota ≥$30B em 100% em 21 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 é resolvido?
- OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).