Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 90.8%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 58 minutos
Atrasado23/07/25, 09:03 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
see https://epoch.ai/trends#compute.
- At market creation, the most recent update put grok 3 at 5e26 FLOP.
- This market will resolve to epoch's estimate if it is available at time of market close.
- If unavailable, the most sensible estimate at that time will be used.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distributed training runs are not relevant to this market at 2e27 FLOP - only centralized training runs count.
