Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 84.3%
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20
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado10/06/24, 21:57 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketRegras
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 1GW AI training run before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 1GW AI training run before 2027? é resolvido?
- 1GW AI training run before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como 1GW AI training run before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.