Quais são as probabilidades atuais de [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 58.6% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

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Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 06:44 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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Não 58.6%

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Atualizado há 2 horas

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14/11/23, 14:28 UTC3/01/50, 04:00 UTC

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Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/18545/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2050, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action.
This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.