Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 81.3%
Previsores
85
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado26/04/26, 05:47 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Slay the Spire 2 be fully released?
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsWill an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegras
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime