Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2027 66.3%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado12/12/25, 11:01 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the automation rate reported on the Remote Labor Index leaderboard, defined as the percentage of projects where an AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human standard—whether a "reasonable client" would accept the work.
- The market resolves to the year in which the RLI automation rate first reaches or exceeds 80%, as reported on the official leaderboard at https://scale.com/leaderboard/rli.
- If the automation rate never reaches 80% by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "the named outcome."
- The Remote Labor Index is a benchmark that empirically measures the capability of AI agents to perform real-world, economically valuable remote work by evaluating AI agents on a broad, multi-sector collection of end-to-end projects sourced from professional freelance platforms, providing a direct comparison of AI agent performance against professional human-produced deliverables.
- As of the latest evaluation, the maximum automation rate across frontier AI agent frameworks is 2.5% on RLI projects.