In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
One-OffIAMacro & Economy17aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 52%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 horas
Desatualizado2/11/23, 12:30 UTC31/12/43, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat percentage of school-age Americans (K-12) will be reported as having been homeschooled in the spring of 2024?
Manifold MarketsWill US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027?
KalshiHow high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 50,000 in September 2026?
ForecastExADP employment change in Nov 2026?
KalshiRegras
As per the Twitter debate between Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) and Daniel Colson (@DanielColson6), this question - which was suggested by Daniel - looks to measure the impact of AI on jobs in the US.
- The data used to close the question to yes or no will be FRED's Employment Population Ratio 25-54 yrs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? é resolvido?
- In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2043.
- Como In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As per the Twitter debate between Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) and Daniel Colson (@DanielColson6), this question - which was suggested by Daniel - looks to measure the impact of AI on jobs in the US.