If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomiaOne-OffPolítica dos EUA1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.6%
Previsores
1
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
7/10/26, 02:05 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House.
