If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50.5%
Previsores
1
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
24/04/26, 21:52 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If OpenAI goes public and releases their first financials before 2028, what will their net income margin be?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
Manifold MarketsWill we reach AGI before Stripe goes public?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves if OpenAI goes public and releases their first financial statements.
- If after reading their financials I believe any ARR numbers they claimed seem suspicions or misleading.
- An example of a clear case that could show this would be if they claimed $20b ARR at the start of 2026 but their 2026 financials show only $15B of revenue.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- € 225,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 157 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 348,3 mil
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 51% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? é resolvido?
- If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves if OpenAI goes public and releases their first financial statements.