Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.4%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+0.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado3/09/23, 06:05 UTC1/01/30, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
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Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals: