Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2027 74.1%Líder entre 4 opções
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
0.0 pts
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado28/03/24, 09:19 UTC1/01/30, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
If you don't want to read the full description, the short version is this: The probability of each time category represents the percentage of people that will be worse at problem-solving than an AI that doesn't use extreme amounts of energy.
- Codeforces contests will be used to measure the performance.
- Competitive Programming and AI
- AIs as of 2024 are good at retrieving previously discovered knowledge, they lack however the ability to navigate complex state spaces to arrive at new solutions.
- CP problems provide a good framework for testing them in this area, as we can easily test their solutions with a computation.
- As such, their rating in Codeforces will also reflect to some extent their ability to solve complex problems relative to other humans.