Will Super Heavy or Starship crash into the catching tower before 2030? (read description)
TecnologiaOne-OffEspaço3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50.9%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 50 minutos
Atrasado27/08/25, 05:59 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
A crash is defined as either the first or second stage making contact with the tower or the chopstick during a catch attempt and then coming to rest in any other orientation than the two catching support structures (pins or fins) resting on the chopsticks.
- I have chosen this somewhat specific definition because I am concerned it may be hard to distinguish between a rough catch and a small crash.
- Betting in this market should be undertaken with the knowledge that some things that look like crashes might not qualify.
- At the time of writing, I am making the assumption that neither stage will have a protocol to abort a catch after initial contact is made.
- If that assumption is shown to be wrong by credible sources, I will NA this market.
- However, if the first indication that such an abort mode exists is a real life demonstration of it, this market will resolve to YES.
