Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2026-11-01 99.5%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+4.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado31/08/26, 14:57 UTC1/12/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
99.5%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google release Gemini 4?
KalshiWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
Manifold MarketsWill Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only a Flash model counts — Pro and Flash-Lite releases do not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemini 3.8 Flash, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2026-11-01 em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date é resolvido?
- Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date deverá ser resolvido em 1 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.