Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (89.8%)
Resolvido: 18 de out. de 2026, 04:17
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
No
A 7 dias
—
A 24 horas
—
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 18 de out. de 2026, 21:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes10.2%
No89.8%
Ganhou
Perdeu
Mercados Relacionados
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https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
- Resolves very subjectivly; don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Physical reasoning includes things like driving cars, cleaning houses, and other use-cases that involve understanding directions and distances in the real world and manipulating physical objects.
- Psychological reasoning includes things like understanding human thoughts and ideas, making art and mathematical discoveries, writing computer programs, etc. This market resolves once it seems that AI's mastery of one of those domains has radically improved over the status quo in January of 2023.
- For example if before we reach AGI we get self-driving cars that are radically safer than humans in all situations, this will probably resolve YES.
