Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 82.9% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 82.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 horas

Desatualizado

8/01/23, 18:43 UTC8/01/33, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves to YES if, according to a credible variety of international news media, any foreign military intervenes in Namibia in the next ten years.

"Intervention" could be declaration of war, invasion, bombing, etc. I am asking this question because oil was recently discovered in Namibia; a cynic might feel that the discovery of oil makes military action more likely (whether its stated purpose is related to oil or not).
Resolution of the market does not care what is the purpose of the intervention, only whether an intervention occurs or not.