Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Líder entre 7 opções
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado21/02/24, 04:36 UTC2/01/36, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.
- Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
- GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
- This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
- I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
- (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)
