[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
One-OffIA3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBy 2030 93.2%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado24/03/25, 01:49 UTC1/01/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Full question: "chance that an off-the-shelf AI system can, if provided the rules to an arbitrary turn-based board game, play roughly as well as a casual player of the game"
- Resolution Criteria:
- A "casual player" is defined as someone who has, e.g., played similar games frequently, and has played this game for several hours, but has not played it competitively or studied strategy.
- Think, family game night playing Monopoly.
- I will consider only board games that are typical family-friendly games you might find in a non-specialty store.
- The AI is not allowed to be fine-tuned on this specific game by a human.
