By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?
One-OffTecnologiaAdoção7aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.9%
Previsores
37
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
3/04/24, 22:02 UTC11/04/34, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Max Miller leave the House before the midterms?
KalshiWill Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?
KalshiWill Apple release a Bitcoin hardware wallet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my friend S successfully run a market on manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Currently most of us leave the house with phone, wallet and keys.
- Increasingly, phones are able to act as both a wallet and keys.
- This will resolve to Yes if there is a reputable survey that demonstrates that the majority of Americans adults (18+) use their phones as their primary method of payment and keys (car and house) and answer some version of the question
- “When you leave your home, what combination of phone, wallet and keys do you usually take?”
- with the answer “Phones only”
