Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologia3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 61%
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado23/09/25, 01:52 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
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Perguntas frequentes
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- A Manifold Markets cota No em 61% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
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- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition