Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 77.1%
Previsores
71
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado26/06/26, 07:51 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.
- The qualifying attack should result in the settlement system going offline for at least two hours, and must be the result of a deliberate attack by a third party that uses AI as a major part of the attack, or is itself an AI, according to credible reporting.
- Disruptions attributable to human error or internal operational failures do not count.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? é resolvido?
- AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.