Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 56.8% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?

China IAOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 56.8%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 10 horas

Desatualizado

24/09/26, 20:27 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Must either be available in a car a normal person could actually buy (<$1M USD), or in a ride-share program a normal person could actually use.

Only available in China or some other country is fine.
LLM-based means that the self-driving system relies on a (possibly heavily modified) LLM to make driving decisions.
A hybrid system where the LLM makes a subset of driving decisions would qualify.
For this question I'm defining LLM slightly generously - if the driving model itself is capable of reasoning about and responding to general user queries (including those having nothing to do with driving) via text, or is a modified variant of a model which could do so, I'll consider it an LLM.
Please ask clarifying questions!