Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
X = 5 100%Líder entre 13 opções
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado15/01/24, 16:54 UTC31/12/27, 18:29 UTC
Tendências
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
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PolymarketRegras
Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":
- [image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:
- (https://www.swebench.com/)
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota X = 5 em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? é resolvido?
- AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":