Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualExponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe 31%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado8/03/26, 07:17 UTC31/12/33, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRegras
Main factors for this
- Valuations + Revenues of Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic showing ~exponential growth in ARR and funding)
- Overall economic status (employment, GDP growth etc)
- Benchmarks (e.g. METR, ECI, AA) which have generally improved at a roughly constant rate with that rate increasing (roughly double) since mid 2024
- [image]Leaving Other for A. Sublinear (e.g. fraudulent, waste of money) bubble pops (idk FTX, NFT, type things).
- Though I think bubble popping similar to dot com might still be linear growth overall, just that the expectation of exponential leads to valuations popping, and other things like AI takeover (seems more aligned with Hyperexponential since we’re discussing AI progress rather than human progress) and or pausing AI development “early” idk, basically anything that doesn’t fit neatly into
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 410,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 56,4 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,7 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,4 mil
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 70 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 mais resultados
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- A Manifold Markets cota Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe em 31% em 17 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 é resolvido?
- AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2033.
- Como AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Main factors for this