Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 91.5%
Previsores
31
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
20/09/26, 19:51 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
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KalshiWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegras
Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial
- Two are solved already, so this market is really asking if 3 more will be solved before December 31
- Resolves YES if a solution was generated on December 31 but isn't announced until January, I may wait to resolve NO for a week or two in January for that reason.
- If the day the solution was generated isn't mentioned in an announcement I'll treat it as if it was generated the announcement day
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91.5% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial