🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
PolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoAmérica Latina17dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50.8%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
5/10/26, 20:15 UTC24/10/26, 17:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Brazil presidential runoff: voter turnout
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRegras
This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points.
- For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES.
- A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO.
- Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- Blank and invalid ballots are excluded.
- If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs.