KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Democratic by 9.0% or more 19.3%Líder entre 20 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
64 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
693,5 €
Liquidez
33,7 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
20/05/26, 18:00 UTC6/05/29, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:United States Congress
- The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress.
- If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used.
- If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used.
- Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- A Kalshi cota Democratic by 9.0% or more em 19% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 2028 popular vote margin of victory? é resolvido?
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? deverá ser resolvido em 6 de maio de 2029.
- Como 2028 popular vote margin of victory? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.