KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptLíder entre 3 opções
Qualidade do mercado
48 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
1,1 €
Liquidez
45,4 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
6.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
25/10/25, 14:00 UTC7/11/28, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegras
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 615,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 730,5 mil
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volume total
- € 29,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 643,3 mil
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 mais resultados
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 mais resultados
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 14,5 mi
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volume total
- € 19,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 483,5 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Trump run for a third term??
- A Kalshi cota Before Election Day em 20% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Trump run for a third term? é resolvido?
- Will Trump run for a third term? deverá ser resolvido em 7 de novembro de 2028.
- Como Will Trump run for a third term? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.