KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem preço significativoDados desatualizados
Dados de 6 de nov. de 2026, 16:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Ponto médio do livro selecionado
At least 1% · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
At least 1% 95.5%Líder entre 8 opções
At least 1% 95.5%Qualidade do mercado
22 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
0 US$
Contratos em aberto: desconhecidoCompra / Venda
— / —
At least 1%Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado6/11/26, 00:00 UTC8/01/29, 14:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · At least 1%
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
KalshiWill a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will join the National Popular Vote Compact?
KalshiRegras
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Federal Election Commission
- Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not published the report by expiration, the sum of the states' and the District of Columbia's final certified results is used.
Regras de cada resultado
- At least 1%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 3% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 4% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 7% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
