KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Claude 75.2%+5.0ptLíder entre 9 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
65 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
10,6 mil €
Liquidez
18,8 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
31/08/26, 17:3030/09/26, 14:00
Tendências
Regras
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
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- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.1pt99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 593,1 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-5.1pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+7.0pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 8,8 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.9pt20.6%
- September 5+14.9pt15.7%
- September 6+13.2pt13.7%
+27 mais resultados
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.7pt100%
+10 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-13.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 159,7 mil
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
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- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI capability growth this year?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?
- A Kalshi cota Claude em 75% em 4 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) é resolvido?
- Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.